Aaron Pressman 2018年4月26日
Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su has successfully executed on her multi-year strategy to overhaul the chipmaker’s entire product line and create an array of modern, higher-performance PC and graphics processors. But after pulling AMD’s stock out of the dregs—it was trading under $2 a share in early 2016—and proving the company could stay in business, Su has since struggled to convince Wall Street that she can turn the compelling products into compelling profit gains.
But with AMD’s first quarter report issued on Wednesday, not only sales exceeded expectations, with a 40% jump to $1.65 billion. AMD also showed a four percentage point improvement in its gross margin, to 36%, and operating income of $120 million up from just $11 million a year ago. Analyst Patrick Moorhead of Moor Insights & Strategy called it a “blowout” and credited the growing popularity of AMD’s new Ryzen CPU chips.
AMD’s progress selling its newest chips could finally signal a turning point, or “product inflection,” noted analyst Stacy Rasgon at Bernstein Research. “For the first time since this product cycle kicked off AMD may have given investors at least some reason to dream,” he wrote.
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AMD’s stock, which has been on a rollercoaster this year, jumped 14% on Thursday in midday trading to $11.08. That’s still well down from the 10-year high of $15.65 hit last July, but 16% higher than the price just two weeks ago.
That’s likely because part of Su’s struggle with Wall Street has nothing to do with AMD’s (amd) own strategy, or even the competition from Intel (intc) and Nvidia (nvda). Instead, a major concern revolves around just how much buying demand for AMD graphics cards is coming from digital currency mining operations and how volatile that demand might be as prices of the currencies decline.
Last year, when the prices of various digital currencies such as Ethereum skyrocketed, the computer mining activity that runs on graphics chips like AMD’s new Vega line skyrocketed, too. Now that cryptocurrency prices have retreated somewhat—Ethereum’s is less than half what it was in early January—analysts predict mining activity will wane. Last time that happened, back in 2014, it flooded the market with used graphics cards killing sales at AMD and its competitors.
Su says this time is different, always a tricky argument to make on Wall Street where “this time” is almost never different. But Su offered two propositions to back her theory, adding that AMD has been in touch with major commercial currency mining operations to hear about their plans.
First, unlike 2014 when miners all focused on bitcoin, now there are dozens of major cryptocurrencies. Instead of giving up mining altogether and selling their gear “what we’ve seen is that people who are mining do go from one currency to another depending on what’s happening,” Su said on a call with analysts Wednesday afternoon. The other factor is that some part-time miners buy high-end graphics cards for multiple uses. “We see that there is good demand for, not just blockchain, but for gaming, for the cloud and for those things as well,” Su explained.
Most analysts aren’t sure Su has it right, but booming sales of the various new products, including the Epyc chip for servers, could make a decline in crypto-driven sales irrelevent. In February, AMD unveiled chips which combine its Ryzen CPU with its high-end Vega graphics processor instead of the usual low performers. And last week, the company rolled out its second generation of Ryzen CPUs with better performance for desktop computers.
“We anticipate improving demand and selling prices for AMD’s graphics chips, driven by new Radeon products, and are encouraged by penetration for its Ryzen processors,” analyst Angelo Zino of CFRA Research wrote. “While we see lower blockchain revenue ahead (10% of sales) given industry dynamics, we think investors are underestimating share gain potential of its EPYC server.”
AMD’s forecast for a 50% revenue increase in the second quarter and “mid-20s percent” for all of 2018 incorporated a modest decline in graphics chip demand from miners, CFO Devinder Kumar told analysts. Mining demand accounted for about 10% of such sales in the first quarter, he said.
“There may still be a bit of risk if their estimate of exposure (which at several hundred million dollars feels a little light) is wrong,” writes Bernstein analyst Rasgon.
先进的微器件首席执行官Lisa Su已经成功地执行了她多年的战略，彻底检修CHIPMAKWPOP60300 7QTES整个产品线，并创建一个现代，更高性能的PC和图形处理器阵列。但在将AMDWPA60607QTE股票从渣滓中拉出来之后，2016年初，该公司股价低于每股2美元，并证明该公司可以继续经营业务，此后，SU一直努力说服华尔街，使她能够将引人注目的产品转化为引人注目的利润增长。但在星期三发布的AMDWPA60607QTES第一季度报告中，不仅销量超过预期，也有40%的跃升至16亿5000万美元。AMD的毛利率也提高了四个百分点，达到36%，营业收入从一年前的1100万美元提高到了1亿2000万美元。MOR洞察力和战略的分析师Patrick Moorhead称之为WPA60304QTEBLOWOPEPAP60300 6QTE，并归功于AMDWAP60307QTES新RyZEN CPU芯片的日益普及。AMDWPAP60300 7QTES出售其最新芯片的进展最终可能预示着一个转折点，或者WPA60604QTY产品拐点，WPAP60300 6QTE注意到伯恩斯坦研究公司的分析师Stacy Rasgon。WAP60604QTET:自从这个产品周期开盘以来AMD第一次可能给投资者至少一些梦想的理由，WPAP60300 6QTE他写道。获取数据表，FUNEWWPA60607QTES技术通讯。AMDWAP60607QTES股票在今年午盘上涨了14%，星期四午盘上涨了11.08。TWWPA60607QTE仍远低于去年七月触及的15.65美元的10年高点，但比16%周前的价格高出了16%。TWWPA60607QTEs很可能是因为SUPAP60307QTES与华尔街斗争的一部分与AMDWPA60607QTES（AMD）自己的战略无关，或者甚至来自英特尔（ITCC）和NVIDIA（NVDA）的竞争。相反，主要关注的是，AMD显卡的购买需求来自于数字货币开采业务，以及随着货币价格下跌，需求可能会有多大波动。去年，当诸如EythUM这样的各种数字货币的价格飞涨时，在像AWDWAP6037QTES这样的图形芯片上运行的计算机挖掘活动也随之暴涨。现在，隐性价格已经回落，一些PAP60300 7QTEs不到一月初的一半，分析家预测采矿活动将减少。最后一次发生在2014，它用充斥的图形卡淹没了AMD及其竞争对手的销售。苏说，这一次是不同的，总是一个棘手的论点，使华尔街WPAP60300 4QTET时间WPAP60300 6QTE几乎从来没有不同。但苏提供了两个主张来支持她的理论，并补充说，AMD已经接触到主要的商业货币采矿业务来听取他们的计划。首先，不同于2014，当矿工们都专注于比特币时，现在有几十个主要的密码子。WAPP60606QTES在星期三下午与分析师们的电话中说：“与其放弃采矿，并出售他们的装备WPAP60300 7QTEW，我们还发现，采矿的人确实是从一种货币走到另一种货币，这取决于WHPWP60607QTEs的发生。”另一个因素是一些兼职矿工购买高端图形卡以供多种用途。WPA60604QTEWE看到，不仅是BigStand，而且对于游戏，对于云和那些东西，WPA60606QTE SU有很好的需求。大多数分析师AARNWPAP60300 7QTET确信苏是正确的，但是各种新产品的蓬勃发展，包括服务器的EPYC芯片，可能会导致密码驱动的销售下降。二月，AMD推出了将RyZee CPU与高端维嘉图形处理器相结合的芯片，而不是通常的低性能处理器。上周，该公司推出了第二代Ryzen CPUs，为台式电脑提供了更好的性能。WPA60604QTEWE预期改善AMDWAP60607QTES图形芯片的需求和售价，由新的RADON产品驱动，并受到其RyZin处理器的渗透鼓励，CFPAA研究的WPAP60300 6QTE分析师Angelo Zino写道。WPAP60300 4QTE，我们看到较低的链链收入提前（销售的10%）鉴于行业动态，我们认为投资者低估了其EPYC Server的份额增益潜力。WPAP60300 6QTE AMDWAP60307QTES第二季度和WPA60604QTE 50%的收入增长预测CFO Devinder Kumar对分析师表示，所有2018家公司的中位数20PaP606066QTE都带来了图形芯片需求的适度下降。他说，采矿需求占第一季度销售额的10%左右。WPA60604QTET如果他们的曝光估计（在几亿美元感觉有点轻）是错误的，WPAP60300 6QTE写伯恩斯坦分析员Rasgon可能仍然有一点风险。
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